Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 11.076466 12.398585 13.884324 15.691625 17.849814 20.369033 23.569082
2025-04-27 9.544906 11.268635 13.363028 16.144244 19.818583 24.625776 31.605386
2025-05-04 8.269142 10.075238 12.375698 15.603793 20.161814 26.616239 36.962291
2025-05-11 7.676988 9.614819 12.188360 15.985997 21.695799 30.436727 45.968550
2025-05-18 7.032249 8.988046 11.667739 15.777264 22.269755 32.864126 53.439691
2025-05-25 6.516132 8.472886 11.226363 15.593303 22.804959 35.287824 61.711006
2025-06-01 6.119683 8.082150 10.911684 15.541450 23.515774 38.139859 71.956410
2025-06-08 5.696337 7.613398 10.429945 15.152703 23.565986 39.746723 80.118610
2025-06-15 5.414408 7.327990 10.195953 15.132968 24.257965 42.769908 93.266113
2025-06-22 5.028314 6.858271 9.634936 14.494164 23.688561 43.001611 98.966477
2025-06-29 4.670482 6.409634 9.074711 13.801096 22.917059 42.626381 102.770165
2025-07-06 4.396197 6.073718 8.672139 13.348017 22.560059 43.135534 109.803404
2025-07-13 4.471320 6.293920 9.203664 14.662283 26.103087 54.290330 165.102136
2025-07-20 4.369661 6.226136 9.249441 15.081507 27.837316 61.562597 215.973724
2025-07-27 4.124945 5.911364 8.848186 14.589866 27.412257 62.536732 236.994241
2025-08-03 4.035146 5.844196 8.870585 14.937336 29.031602 70.401287 313.812194
2025-08-10 3.870730 5.643288 8.641334 14.747623 29.300589 74.027172 371.267944
2025-08-17 3.722346 5.461248 8.433365 14.580346 29.600096 77.933842 443.757779
2025-08-24 3.601710 5.319773 8.289317 14.533182 30.210432 83.324805 553.592556
2025-08-31 3.448144 5.114569 8.015382 14.179394 29.930756 85.142915 631.446508
2025-09-07 3.348804 4.998165 7.899414 14.161425 30.590514 91.259435 812.617657
2025-09-14 3.183949 4.761046 7.543979 13.579285 29.542427 89.460301 846.900615
2025-09-21 3.021559 4.522839 7.176555 12.946604 28.276009 86.334739 846.112673